Reasoning about the Reliability of Diverse Two-Channel Systems in which One Channel is "Possibly Perfect"

This paper considers the problem of reasoning about the reliability of fault-tolerant systems with two "channels" (i.e., components) of which one, A, supports only a claim of reliability, while the other, B, by virtue of extreme simplicity and extensive analysis, supports a plausible claim of "perfection." We begin with the case where either channel can bring the system to a safe state. We show that, conditional upon knowing pA (the probability that A fails on a randomly selected demand) and pB (the probability that channel B is imperfect), a conservative bound on the probability that the system fails on a randomly selected demand is simply pA.pB. That is, there is conditional independence between the events "A fails" and "B is imperfect." The second step of the reasoning involves epistemic uncertainty about (pA, pB) and we show that under quite plausible assumptions, a conservative bound on system pfd can be constructed from point estimates for just three parameters. We discuss the feasibility of establishing credible estimates for these parameters. We extend our analysis from faults of omission to those of commission, and then combine these to yield an analysis for monitored architectures of a kind proposed for aircraft

Economic evaluations of non-communicable disease interventions

Background Demographic projections suggest a major increase in non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality over the next two decades in developing countries. In a climate of scarce resources, policy-makers need to know which interventions represent value for money. The prohibitive cost of performing multiple economic evaluations has generated interest in transferring the results of studies from one setting to another. This paper aims to bridge the gap in the current literature by critically evaluating the available published data on economic evaluations of NCD interventions in developing countries. Methods We identified and reviewed the methodological quality of 32 economic evaluations of NCD interventions in developing countries. Developing countries were defined according to the World Bank classification for low- and lower middle-income countries. We defined NCDs as the 12 categories listed in the 1993 World Bank report Investing in Health. English language literature was searched for the period January 1984 and January 2003 inclusive in Medline, Science Citation Index, HealthStar, NHS Economic Evaluation Database and Embase using medical subheading terms and free text searches. We then assessed the quality of studies according to a set of pre-defined technical criteria. Results We found that the quality of studies was poor and resource allocation decisions made by local and global policy-makers on the basis of this evidence could be misleading. Furthermore we have identified some clear gaps in the literature, particularly around injuries and strategies for tackling the consequences of the emerging tobacco epidemic. Conclusion In the face of poor evidence the role of so-called generalised cost-effectiveness analyses has an important role to play in aiding public health decision-making at the global level. Further research is needed to investigates the causes of variation among cost, effects and cost-effectiveness data within and between settings. Such analyses still need to take a broad view, present data in a transparent manner and take account of local constraints

Inequalities in purchase of mosquito nets and willingness to pay for insecticide-treated nets in Nigeria: Challenges for malaria control interventions

Objective: To explore the equity implications of insecticide-treated nets (ITN) distribution programmes that are based on user charges. Methods: A questionnaire was used to collect information on previous purchase of untreated nets and hypothetical willingness to pay (WTP) for ITNs from a random sample of householders. A second survey was conducted one month later to collect information on actual purchases of ITNs. An economic status index was used for characterizing inequity. Major findings: The lower economic status quintiles were less likely to have previously purchased untreated nets and also had a lower hypothetical and actual WTP for ITNs. Conclusion: ITN distribution programmes need to take account of the diversity in WTP for ITNs if they are to ensure equity in access to the nets. This could form part of the overall poverty reduction strategy.This study received financial support from the UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical diseases

Measuring the effect of opportunity cost of time on participation in sports and exercise

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: There is limited research on the association between opportunity cost of time and sports and exercise due to lack of data on opportunity cost of time. Using a sample of 14142 adults from Health Survey for England (2006), we develop and test a composite index of op-portunity cost of time (to address the current issues with data constraint on opportunity cost of time) in order to explore the relationship between opportunity cost of time and sports participation. Methods: Probit regression models are fitted adjusting for a range of covariates. Opportunity cost of time is measured with two proxy measures: a) composite index (consisting of various indicators of wage earnings) con-structed using principal component analysis; and b) education and employment, approach in the literature. We estimate the relative impact of the composite index compared with current proxy measures, on prediction of sports participation. Findings: Findings suggest that higher opportunity cost of time is associated with increased likelihood of sports participation, regardless of the time intensity of activity or the measure of opportunity cost of time used. The relative impacts of the two proxy measures are comparable. Sports and exercise was found to be positively correlated with income. Another important positive correlate of sports and exercise is participation in voluntary activity. The research and policy implications of our findings are discussed

Physical activity in England: Who is meeting the recommended level of participation through sports and exercise?

This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. Copyright © 2012 Anokye et al.Background: Little is known about the correlates of meeting recommended levels of participation in physical activity (PA) and how this understanding informs public health policies on behaviour change. Objective: To analyse who meets the recommended level of participation in PA in males and females separately by applying ‘process’ modelling frameworks (single vs. sequential 2-step process). Methods: Using the Health Survey for England 2006, (n = 14 142; ≥16 years), gender-specific regression models were estimated using bivariate probit with selectivity correction and single probit models. A ‘sequential, 2-step process’ modelled participation and meeting the recommended level separately, whereas the ‘single process’ considered both participation and level together. Results: In females, meeting the recommended level was associated with degree holders [Marginal effect (ME) = 0.013] and age (ME = −0.001), whereas in males, age was a significant correlate (ME = −0.003 to −0.004). The order of importance of correlates was similar across genders, with ethnicity being the most important correlate in both males (ME = −0.060) and females (ME = −0.133). In females, the ‘sequential, 2-step process’ performed better (ρ = −0.364, P < 0.001) than that in males (ρ = 0.154). Conclusion: The degree to which people undertake the recommended level of PA through vigorous activity varies between males and females, and the process that best predicts such decisions, i.e. whether it is a sequential, 2-step process or a single-step choice, is also different for males and females. Understanding this should help to identify subgroups that are less likely to meet the recommended level of PA (and hence more likely to benefit from any PA promotion intervention).This study was funded by the Department of Health’s Policy Research Programme

The health and sport engagement (HASE) intervention and evaluation project: protocol for the design, outcome, process and economic evaluation of a complex community sport intervention to increase levels of physical activity.

INTRODUCTION: Sport is being promoted to raise population levels of physical activity for health. National sport participation policy focuses on complex community provision tailored to diverse local users. Few quality research studies exist that examine the role of community sport interventions in raising physical activity levels and no research to date has examined the costs and cost-effectiveness of such provision. This study is a protocol for the design, outcome, process and economic evaluation of a complex community sport intervention to increase levels of physical activity, the Health and Sport Engagement (HASE) project part of the national Get Healthy Get Active programme led by Sport England. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The HASE study is a collaborative partnership between local community sport deliverers and sport and public health researchers. It involves designing, delivering and evaluating community sport interventions. The aim is to engage previously inactive people in sustained sporting activity for 1×30 min a week and to examine associated health and well-being outcomes. The study uses mixed methods. Outcomes (physical activity, health, well-being costs to individuals) will be measured by a series of self-report questionnaires and attendance data and evaluated using interrupted time series analysis controlling for a range of sociodemographic factors. Resource use will be identified and measured using diaries, interviews and records and presented alongside effectiveness data as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. A longitudinal process evaluation (focus groups, structured observations, in-depth interview methods) will examine the efficacy of the project for achieving its aim using the principles of thematic analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The results of this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, academic conference presentations, Sport England and national public health organisation policy conferences, and practice-based case studies. Ethical approval was obtained through Brunel University London's research ethics committee (reference number RE33-12)

Costs of publicly provided maternity services in Rosario, Argentina

This material is posted here with permission of the publishers, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material must be obtained from the Publisher.Objective. This study estimates the costs of maternal health services in Rosario, Argentina. Material and Methods. The rovider costs (US$1999) of antenatal care, a normal vaginal delivery and a caesarean section, were evaluated retrospectively in two municipal hospitals. The cost of an antenatal visit was evaluated in two health centres and the patient costs associated with the visit were evaluated in a hospital and a health centre. Results. The average cost per hospital day is$114.62. The average cost of a caesarean section ($525.57) is five times greater than that of a normal vaginal delivery ($105.61). A normal delivery costs less at the general hospital and a c-section less at the aternity hospital. The average cost of an antenatal visit is $31.10. The provider cost is lower at the health centre than at the hospital. Personnel accounted for 72-94$4.70. Direct costs are minimal compared to indirect costs of travel and waiting time. Conclusions. These results suggest the potential for increasing the efficiency of resource use by promoting antenatal care visits at the primary level. Women could also benefit from reduced travel and waiting time. Similar benefits could accrue to the provider by encouraging normal delivery at general hospitals, and complicated deliveries at specialised maternity hospitals.Josephine Borghi is funded by the Department for International Development through the Maternal Health Programme at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. This project was conducted for and funded by the Human Reproduction Programme at WHO, Geneva

Can food vouchers improve nutrition and reduce health inequalities in low-income mothers and young children: A multi-method evaluation of the experiences of beneficiaries and practitioners of the Healthy Start programme in England

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background: Good nutrition is important during pregnancy, breastfeeding and early life to optimise the health of women and children. It is difficult for low-income families to prioritise spending on healthy food. Healthy Start is a targeted United Kingdom (UK) food subsidy programme that gives vouchers for fruit, vegetables, milk, and vitamins to low-income families. This paper reports an evaluation of Healthy Start from the perspectives of women and health practitioners. Methods. The multi-method study conducted in England in 2011/2012 included focus group discussions with 49 health practitioners, an online consultation with 620 health and social care practitioners, service managers, commissioners, and user and advocacy groups, and qualitative participatory workshops with 85 low-income women. Additional focus group discussions and telephone interviews included the views of 25 women who did not speak English and three women from Traveller communities. Results: Women reported that Healthy Start vouchers increased the quantity and range of fruit and vegetables they used and improved the quality of family diets, and established good habits for the future. Barriers to registration included complex eligibility criteria, inappropriate targeting of information about the programme by health practitioners and a general low level of awareness among families. Access to the programme was particularly challenging for women who did not speak English, had low literacy levels, were in low paid work or had fluctuating incomes. The potential impact was undermined by the rising price of food relative to voucher value. Access to registered retailers was problematic in rural areas, and there was low registration among smaller shops and market stalls, especially those serving culturally diverse communities. Conclusions: Our evaluation of the Healthy Start programme in England suggests that a food subsidy programme can provide an important nutritional safety net and potentially improve nutrition for pregnant women and young children living on low incomes. Factors that could compromise this impact include erosion of voucher value relative to the rising cost of food, lack of access to registered retailers and barriers to registering for the programme. Addressing these issues could inform the design and implementation of food subsidy programmes in high income countries. © 2014 McFadden et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.The Policy Research Programme in the Department of Health, UK